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Max Giese: Sharkspage 2010 NHL Entry Draft Preview

The San Jose Sharks enter the 2010 NHL Entry Draft with only four picks in hand, but based on past history they could make anywhere from five-to-seven selections before it’s all said and done. General Manager Doug Wilson has future draft picks at his disposal to provide more ammunition for Sharks Chief Scout Tim Burke. San Jose has all of their 2011 and 2012 draft selections, plus an extra 6th rounder in 2011 after trading Jody Shelley to the New York Rangers. It is likely the Sharks will have an extra 2nd rounder in 2012 as compensation for not signing underachieving prospect Pat White.  GM Doug Wilson could utilize the abundance of picks in 2011 and 2012 to help fill the void this year, while targeting defensive-defenseman, and forwards with speed, skill and grit.

2010 SHARKS MOCK DRAFT

First round, 28th overall:  Jarred Tinordi, LD USNTDP, 6-5/203

Tinordi is the massive, physical stay-at-home defenseman the Sharks need.  He is the type of defenseman that goaltenders would love to have in front of them, an intimidating presence that protects his teammates.  He does not project to contribute much offensively in the NHL, but few are better in their own end. He moves well for his height, and he makes a pro-caliber first pass.  Has leadership qualities, and is a player teammates lean on to settle down and keep things together.

Third round, 88th overall:  Dalton Smith, LW Ottawa 67s, 6-2/195

A Chris Neil-like power forward, Smith is a big, strong winger who uses his large mitts for scoring and fighting.  He needs to work on his first step quickness, but scouts are intrigued by the meteoric improvements he made offensively this season. His presence in front of the opponents net could make him a filler on the powerplay in the pro’s.  Smith has shown the ability to adapt and play multiple roles and his strength/grinding style project well to the NHL.

Fifth round, 127th overall via Carolina:  Marcel Noebles, RW Krefeld Germany, 6-3/210

Big German winger with good hands and a scorers touch.  Fairly agile for his size and is determined away from the puck.  Early in the season he struggled with his coordination and lack of strength on his feet, but he developed late in the year into a playmaking threat.  Big wingers with soft hands and the ability to manufacture offense are a coveted commodity in any draft, and the Sharks are bound to take one of the many talented German prospects available this year.

Fifth round, 136th overall via Ottawa:  Brendan Woods, LW Chicago Steel USHL, 6-2/182

Woods missed the first half of the season with a broken femur and was slow to get his game back on track once he returned after Christmas.  Then in February he regained his strength and became one of the best draft eligible players in the USHL down the stretch.  Woods has the side profile of a 2-D cartoon character but does have a wide frame to fill out.  He shoots and hits hard and has a powerful skating stride.  The Sharks were one of a handful of NHL teams to make several visits to Chicago late in the season to see Woods.

Expert Predictions:

Redline Report has two scouting sources compile mock drafts every year.  This year one sees the Sharks targeting Portland left-winger Brad Ross with their first-round pick, because the organization could use a Steve Ott type to increase their grit factor.  In the other mock draft the Sharks were predicted to select Peterborough Petes forward Ryan Spooner, a slick offensive whiz who would help fill the void if Marleau departs via free-agency.

International Scouting Services has the Sharks taking Swedish defenseman Patrik Nemeth with the 28th overall pick in their mock draft.  “Nemeth is a gamble San Jose can afford to take with this pick.  A smart and big two way defender, Nemeth could be the potential replacement for Rob Blake in the not too distant future.  Nemeth has very strong pro-potential and would be a very smart selection”.

Ed Roberts, a Detroit-based scout for Redline Report predicts the Sharks will either draft Tyler Toffoli or Tom Kuhnhackl with the 28th overall selection.  “Toffoli could be the pick as one must consider the inside information Doug Wilson receives from Brian Killrea.  But I could also see them grabbing Tom Kuhnhackl because their German scout carries a lot of weight within the organization”.

Pat Edwards, an Illinois-based scout for International Scouting Services predicts the Sharks will take Jarred Tinordi 28th overall.  “San Jose needs a quality defenseman especially with Rob Blake retiring.  In addition, San Jose did not offer contracts to Julien Demers and Samuel Groulx.  The Sharks struggles against the team speed of the Blackhawks lead me to believe that taking a top-tier defensive talent would be there strategic play”.

David Burstyn, the Director of Scouting for McKeen’s Hockey predicts the Sharks will draft Alexander Petrovic at 28th overall.  “Petrovic has the size, natural aggression and improving skill-set to be on the Sharks back-end in the near future”.

Randy Gorman of McKeen’s Hockey predicts the Sharks will draft Jarred Tinordi 28th overall.  “Sharks could be interested in WHL prospects Alexander Petrovic and Quinton Howden, but Tinordi fills a need and is the type of defenseman the Sharks covet.”

Potential Picks at 28TH overall:

Jarred Tinordi, D USNTDP (USHL), 6-5/203

Think Mike Rathje with more of an edge and you have an accurate description of what Tinordi could possibly bring to the Sharks back-end.  He is a massive, physical stay-at-home defenseman that shuts down the oppositions top offensive threats and protects his teammates.  He will not contribute much offensively in the NHL, but he moves well on his feet and makes a good first pass.  Sharks are rumored to be interested although the rapid development of prospect Taylor Doherty could have them searching for a different ingredient in the first round.

Riley Sheahan, LC Notre Dame (CCHA), 6-2/202

Stock went down late in the season after he was charged with public intoxication and minor consumption.  Before the incident Sheahan’s character was believed to be one of his top attributes and he’s a sizable two-way centerman with great hockey sense and he’s very polished defensively.  Offensively his calling card is his playmaking ability, but it’s his maturity away from the puck that makes him an easy projection to the NHL.

Jaden Schwartz, LC Tri-City Storm (USHL), 5-10/180

The Sharks believe that hockey sense and character allow a player to thrive in the NHL, and Schwarz might be the smartest player in the draft.  He’s a tenacious playmaker comparable to a poor-mans Zach Parise.  Another thing working in Schwartz’s favor is that right now no scout within the Sharks organization is hotter than Pat Funk, who is responsible for uncovering recent gems Joe Pavelski and Alex Stalock.  Funk presides over the USHL for the Sharks, and if Schwarz is his guy he could be San Jose’s pick.

Charlie Coyle, RW South Shore (EJHL), 6-2/202

Despite coming out of a low level of hockey in the EJHL, Coyle is relatively a safe bet to at least be a third-liner in the NHL, and some see second-line upside in him as well.  He has good size and is a swift skater with quality two-way hockey sense.  His defensive awareness and willingness to engage physically bode well for his development but his offensive ceiling depends on if you believe his creative passing ability will translate to the NHL.

Quinton Howden, LW, Moose Jaw (WHL), 6-2/182

If the NHL had a combine similar to the NFL where players could see their stocks rise or fall because of their individual workouts, Howden potentially would be picked in the top ten.  He’s the type of prospect who when viewed in practice appears to have high-end physical gifts, but then he doesn’t do much with those gifts in the actual games.  Howden has good size, a long and powerful skating stride, and an excellent shot.  Some scouts see him as a fine two-way player who can fill many roles. He might be able to develop into a scoring threat that can be counted to come through offensively.  Other NHL teams think he plays below his size and physical tools.

Calle Jarnkrok, C Brynas Jr. (SWE), 5-11/165

Tim Burke and the Sharks scouting staff felt shut out last year when they were not able to draft high enough to select one of the many talented Swedish prospects available.  Some scouts see Jarnkrok in the mold of Ryan O’Reilly in that he’s not the biggest or fastest prospect available, but he has sublime hockey sense and is a well-rounded prospect that should transition to the NHL quickly.  He’s a creative playmaker with soft hands in the offensive zone and he is also aware defensively.  Adding strength will be crucial for him going forward.

Beau Bennett, RW Penticton Vees (BCHL), 6-1/170

One of the best pure skaters in the draft and has all the requisite offensive skills to develop into a second-line scoring winger.  His great skills and offensive instincts make him a threat on the powerplay.  Will need to get stronger and prove that he can fight through tight checking games to make it in the NHL.

Konrad Abeltshauser, D Halifax (QMJHL), 6-5/190

One of the drafts biggest wildcards, Abeltshauser is seen as an early second rounder on some lists and is off of other team’s lists all together.  A lanky German born defenseman with great height and good puck movement, Abeltshauser maintains an active stick defensively but lacks physicality.  He would benefit from developing a mean streak but right now he’s a smooth, tall offensive defenseman with great potential.  Difficult to slot and is the type of prospect that the Sharks could jump on early with their first round pick or steal him in middle of the draft.

Tyler Toffoli, RW Ottawa 67s (OHL), 6-0/180

Has great anticipation and can finish with a quickly released shot.  Smart and skilled but could be more physically assertive.  The comparison to Brad Boyes is bang on.  Boyes has scored in bunches for the St. Louis Blues by trailing the play, finding the open seems and quickly releasing an accurate shot.  Expect Toffoli to do the same in the NHL, and one can’t help but think how good he would look on the wing of Logan Couture one day.  Couture’s playmaking ability and willingness to grind for the puck would mesh perfectly with Toffoli’s game.

Tom Kuhnhackl, RW Landshut (GER), 6-2/172

Would have been a lock to go in the first round this season well before the Sharks pick, had he remained healthy.  Injuries either kept him out of key international events or prevented him from showing off his full capabilities while there.  A team with a strong scout in Germany (San Jose) shouldn’t have a tough time projecting him.  Last year in Fargo for the World U-18’s, Tim Burke was next to me watching the Germans play.  Kunhackl had the puck down low in the offensive zone and Burke called out the move Kuhnhackl was going to use to score. Sure enough, it was exactly what Kuhnackl did.  That tells me Burke knows this kid inside and out.  Few players are better deep in the offensive zone and around the net as this German winger.  Smooth skater with a deceptive shot.  Must get stronger and rebound with a healthy season next year.

Alexander Petrovic, RD Red Deer (WHL), 6-4/193

Physically aggressive stay-at-home defenseman with great size and good mobility.  Has untapped offensive potential too, just needs to polish his decision making.  One of the more underrated prospects on defense out of Canada this year and will blossom as he adds strength.

Ryan Spooner, C Peterborough (OHL), 5-10/177

This creative playmaker unfortunately saw his season end prematurely when he broke his collarbone in his first game back after the CHL Top Prospects Game.  Lacks size but is one of the purest skaters and smartest players available in the draft.  Anticipates developing plays and is an elusive skater who can hit his top gear in one stride.  Good away from the puck and is an ace penalty-killer that will inject any lineup with energy.

Kevin Hayes, LW Noble/Green (NEHS), 6-3/200

Has the talent and size to go high in the first round but some think he’s all sizzle and no steak.  Very flashy and has great size but he plays on the perimeter too much.  His brother Jimmy is willing to park himself in front of the net and likely Kevin will do the same at the next level.  Some times these prep kids aren’t challenged enough and can score at will from the perimeter.  Once he’s challenged at a higher level of play, the physical aspect of the game should come along.

Brad Ross, LW Portland (WHL), 6-0/173

Fans who have wanted to see the Sharks play with more teeth and enjoyed what Scott Nichol brought to the lineup should be hoping that Ross is available when the Sharks make their pick in the first round.  He’s a nasty agitator who also has enough skill to play on the second-line.  Similar to Steve Ott and Steve Downie, Ross is chippy and disruptive with enough skill to contribute offensively.

Justin Faulk, RD USNTDP, 6-0/196

One of the most underrated players available in this years’ draft.  Strong defensively, doesn’t make mistakes and has a cannon from the point.  The comparisons to Kevin Shattenkirk are inaccurate as Faulk isn’t the type to quarterback the PP in the NHL.  However, he’s going to contribute offensively and play on the PP because of his puck smarts and howitzer point blast.  Doesn’t have the sheer height that some of his peers have but Faulk is built like a tank and hits like one too.

Phillip Grubauer, G Windsor (OHL), 6-1/180

The typical Sharks pick in goal.  Grubauer is internationally experienced, won a memorial cup and is German.  He is also an athletic butterfly goaltender with great lateral movement and is especially difficult to beat down low.  Grubauer will need to be coached up as he tends to lean over in his stance and he could further economize his movements.  That said he has the physical tools and requisite mental makeup to develop into an NHL starter.

Matt Mackenzie, LD Calgary (WHL), 6-1/190

Scouts were down on him early in the season when it looked like his development stalled but he rebounded with a strong second-half and won a lot of scouts over with his rapid progression in the WHL playoffs and CHL Memorial Cup.  He reads the play well, remains calm under pressure and has an active stick defensively.  Nothing flashy and he will need to work on his shot, but Mackenzie is a valuable prospect for his sturdy defensive play and consistently sound puck movement.  His hockey sense is his top attribute.

NOTES:

International Scouting Services (ISS) gave the San Jose Sharks a grade of a C in terms of what prospects are on the horizon.  While I can’t agree with their top five Sharks prospects or their belief that goaltending of all things is a weakness in San Jose’s developmental system, I figured it’s still worth sharing.  They list Taylor Doherty, Jamie McGinn, Phil Varone, William Wrenn and Tyson Sexsmith as the Sharks top prospects.  ISS had this to say about the Sharks organization heading into the draft.  “Depth could be better at all positions, but goaltending appears to be a weak area in the system”.

Max Giese was the lead scout at McKeen’s Hockey magazine before moving to the industry leading Red Line Report publication last year. He has scouted players for Sharkspage.com since 2006. The 2010 Red Line Report independent scouting review is available for order here.

[Update] Top four forward draft prospects have real marquee value – Red Line Report’s Kyle Woodlief for USA Today.

The top four overall spots on Red Line’s list this year are all forwards, and there’s some real marquee value in this group, so any team that wants to grab one of the premium forwards had better be prepared to make a bold move to trade up in the draft.

[Update2] No sure-fire No. 1 defensemen found on this year’s prospects list – Red Line Report’s Kyle Woodlief for USA Today.

The first thing that hits us when examining the top end of this year’s crop on the blue line is that it’s a decidedly mediocre class with no real candidates to become a true No. 1 defenseman at the NHL level. We’re probably being a bit harsh because the memory of the last two years of outstanding defense prospects (Victor Hedman, Dmitri Kulikov, Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Tyler Myers, Erik Karlsson, Luke Schenn, etc.) is still fresh in our mind — and these players certainly pale in comparison.

[Update3] Analysts Predict Top Draft Selections, NHL.com’s experts take a crack at predicting the first round – SJsharks.com.

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