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San Jose Sharks 2010-11 contract status/salary cap chart

SAN JOSE SHARKS 2010-11 CONTRACT STATUS/SALARY CAP CHART - CAPGEEK.COM

Using capgeek.com, the Sharks rough offseason salary cap and roster picture has wide room for movement. Six forwards, five defenseman, and one goaltender are under contract for 2010-11. Added to the chart are three promotions from the AHL for reference, Frazer McLaren, defenseman Mike Moore and goaltender Alex Stalock.

The Sharks would need at a minimum to sign five forwards and a depth defenseman with $18M in cap space. Cornerstone unrestricted free agents Patrick Marleau (2009-10, $6.3M) and goaltender Evgeni Nabokov (2009-10, $5.375M) will set the tone for offseason maneuverings, and quite possibly set the direction of the franchise for the foreseeable future. A recent AOL Fanhouse survey of free agents ranked Marleau as the second best forward available, behind only Ilya Kovalchuk. Evgeni Nabokov was ranked as the top free agent goaltender available this offseason, ahead of Mason (#17), Theodore (#35), Turco (#37), Leighton (#40) and Ellis (#45). Manny Malhotra (#23) and Scott Nichol (#50) were other San Jose Sharks represented on the list.

With one season left on a previous contract, Marleau signed a 2-year extention for $6.3M per year prior to the start of the 2007-08 season. It mirrored a short-term, 3-year contract center Joe Thornton signed that summer before his legacy contract with Boston expired after the 2007-08 season. Whether the former Sharks captain would be willing to take a shorter term contract to keep the pieces together for another playoff run or two, or whether Marleau would prefer a long-term contract to plant roots with a franchise remains to be seen. That decison needs to be made, or planned for, before any of the remaining roster moves can be put into motion.

Marleau rebounded after his first major knee injury at the end of 2008-09 with a career high 44 goals, and nearly a point-a-game performance in the playoffs (.928 pts/gm). NHL teams employ a phalanx of lawyers and salary cap specialists to massage numbers into favorable salary cap hits, but for a rough comparable consider: Crosby ($8.7M) 51 goals, Stamkos ($3.7M) 51 goals, Ovechkin ($9.5M) 50 goals, Gaborik ($7.5M) 42 goals, Kovalchuk ($6.4M) 41 goals, Semin ($6M) 40 goals, and Heatley ($7.5M) 39 goals. Dany Heatley’s contract was mitigated for 2009-10 when the Edmonton Oilers were forced to make an upfront payment of $4M on July 1st. Given the rough numbers, and by any consideration Marleau is the most complete 2-way forward available this offseason, he could slot somewhere between $6.5 and $7.5M with the distinct possibility another team will offer more to bring in a new cornerstone for their franchise.

The market for big ticket marquee goaltenders mirrors the Dow or the Nasdaq, and is approaching dot com bubble bursting levels for the NHL. The reality is that Evgeni Nabokov is a top-5 goaltender talent-wise, but he may have to accept top-10 or top-15 money to sign long-term this offseason. The playoff success of Jaroslav Halak, Michael Leighton, Antti Niemi and Craig Anderson has moved the needle for general managers in how they might approach the construction of their teams. Globe and Mail reporter Eric Duhatschek speculated in a recent podcast that goaltenders expecting $4-5M per year may only get an offer of $2-3M. A ranking of goaltenders by 2009-10 salary is available from NHLnumbers.com here.

It might be a mistake, an abberation in performance that could negatively influence a decision vital to the core of a team. “A team with a top goaltender, you’re not going to let him go to sign a guy for $1 million. It doesn’t make sense,” new Tampa Bay Lightning GM Steve Yzerman told Craig Custance of SportingNews.com. “If you don’t have a top goaltender, you sign a guy for a year and hopefully he has a good year and he has a good run. The philosophy is dictated by your personnel a little bit.”

Evgeni Nabokov fought his way into the starting job in San Jose, emerging from a goaltending logjam that included Vezina winner Miikka Kiprusoff and Vesa Toskala. In a search for salary cap comparables and available free agents, the biggest challenge Nabokov may face could come from within the organization. 6-foot-1, 210-pound German-born Thomas Greiss (2004 draft, 3rd round, 94th overall) has the size and athleticism to be a successful NHL goaltender. He has playoff experience in the AHL, but he is an unproven commodity. The Sharks will never learn what they have unless he is given an opportunity to carry more of the load, something that is difficult when Evgeni Nabokov averages 70 starts over the last 3 seasons.

Behind Greiss on the depth chart sits the most talented goaltending prospect the Sharks have had since possibly Nabokov or Kiprusoff, former University of Minnesota-Duluth netminder Alex Stalock (2005 draft, 4th round, 112th overall). As a rookie the 6-foot-0, 185-pound South St. Paul native registered an AHL-best 39 wins with the Worcester Sharks this season, more than the highly touted Jonathan Bernier (30) or Corey Schneider (35).

In addition to his own group of youtube Stalock superfans, he was also described by Sharkspage’s Darryl Hunt as “the second best goaltender to ever play for a Worcester AHL team, behind only Dwayne Roloson.” Stalock heads a Goaltending Factory pipeline of prospects that includes 6-foot-5 Swedish goaltender Henrik Karlsson (RFA), University of Massachusetts Lowell goaltender Carter Hutton, Tyson Sexsmith, Thomas Heemskerk (WHL) and Finnish netminder Harri Sateri.

If the Sharks were to take a youth movement goaltending track and lock up key unrestricted and restricted free agents, they could do so from within. It would be the largest decision the franchise has made since the trade of former captain Owen Nolan. Evgeni Nabokov has faced more shots and played more minutes with a San Jose Sharks crest on his jersey (14757, 32492), than the next four goaltenders combined (Irbe, Shields, Vernon and Toskala). The former Calder winner and Vezina runner up is the franchise leader in games played (563), wins (293), saves (13463) and shutouts (50).

The Sharks are not looking to pay for regular season success. For three consecutive regular seasons the San Jose locker room has had to withstand a yearlong barrage of playoff questions before the postseason even began. “The Sharks have had an 82-game preseason,” one analyst said after the 2009-10 regular season campaign. The most common critique of Nabokov is that he did not steal enough games to get the franchise over their perennial playoff hump.

Marleau and Nabokov were paid to be difference makers, something each has struggled with at times in the past. While many point to Marleau’s pair of game winning goals against Detroit, or his 5 goals and 71% of the offense generated against Chicago, Nabokov’s contributions are almost criminally overlooked. Much like the defense in front of him, Nabokov pushed through early mistakes and bad bounces and allowed only 4 goals against in the last 4 games of the WCQF series with Colorado.

Against Detroit, games were never out of hand but Nabokov locked down the goal crease long enough admist heavy traffic to give his team an opportunity to win 4 out of 5 games. In Chicago, where the Sharks were swept in 4 games, Nabokov allowed 13 goals on 128 shots against but the goal support he received was non-existent. The third best offense in the Western Conference (3.22/gpg), and the fourth best in the NHL, could only manage 7 goals in 4 games agaisnt Chicago (1.75/gpg). All but 2 goals came from Patrick Marleau.

The bottom line is that the Sharks offseason plans begin and end with Patrick Marleau and Evgeni Nabokov. As vital a role as Joe Pavelski, Devin Setoguchi, Rob Blake and others played, the future of the franchise rests with the two longest tenured Sharks. The franchise could see massive upheaval after the start of free agency on July 1st. Until that time, both players are under contract with the San Jose Sharks. As the next post will show, a decision to remain with the team will have to be made in conjunction with Sharks management, and with a cooperative effort from players currently under contract as well as returning UFA/RFA’s.

[Update] Bettman: Salary cap to go up $2 million – Mike Heika for the Dallas Morning News Stars blog.

Despite the tough economy, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman said if the NHL Players Association opts to use the escalator he expected the salary cap to go up another $2 million _ or to almost $59 million next season.

The cap ($56.8 million for the 2009-10 season) is figured after each season on a complicated formula, and for it to go up $2 million means that the league is doing pretty well. The strength of the Canadian dollar is playing a big role in the rise.

More details from this Gary Bettman interview with HNIC’s Ron MacLean on June 2nd.

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