SHARKSPAGE

Second half Western Conference Playoff Push, 93 points or bust?

Current Western Conference standings:

WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS:
(before games played Feb 1st, 2011)

1 – Vancouer Canucks* 50GP, 31-10-9, 71 points
2 – Detroit Red Wings* 49GP, 30-13-6, 66 points
3 – Dallas Stars* 50GP, 30-15-5, 65 points
4 – Nashville Predators 50GP, 27-17-6, 60 points
5 – Anaheim Ducks 52GP, 28-20-4, 60 points
6 – Phoenix Coyotes 51GP, 25-17-9, 59 points
7 – Chicago Blackhawks 50GP, 26-20-4, 56 points
8 – San Jose Sharks 50GP, 25-19-6, 56 points
9 – Minnesota Wild 49GP, 25-19-5, 55 points
10 – Colorado Avalanche 50GP, 25-19-6, 56 points
11 – Los Angeles Kings 50GP, 27-22-1, 55 points
12 – Calgary Flames 51GP, 24-21-6, 54 points
13 – St. Louis Blues 49GP, 22-20-7, 51 points
14 – Columbus Blue Jackets 49GP, 23-21-5, 51 points
15 – Edmonton Oilers 49GP, 15-26-8, 38 points

* division leader

Projected Western Conference standings:

PROJECTED WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS:
(after 82 games played)

1 – Vancouer Canucks* 82GP, 51-16-15, 117 points
2 – Detroit Red Wings* 82GP, 50-22-10, 110 points
3 – Dallas Stars* 82GP, 49-25-8, 106 points
4 – Nashville Predators 82GP, 44-28-10, 98 points
5 – Phoenix Coyotes 82GP, 40-27-15, 95 points
6 – Anaheim Ducks 82GP, 44-32-6, 94 points
7 – Minnesota Wild 82GP, 42-32-8, 92 points (0 PSOW)
8 – Chicago Blackhawks 82GP, 43-33-6, 92 points (5 PSOW)
9 – San Jose Sharks 82GP, 41-31-10, 92 points (5 PSOW)
10 – Colorado Avalanche 82GP, 41-31-10, 92 points (5 PSOW)
11 – Los Angeles Kings 82GP, 44-36-2, 90 points
12 – Calgary Flames 82GP, 38-34-10, 86 points
13 – St. Louis Blues 82GP, 37-33-12, 86 points
14 – Columbus Blue Jackets 82GP, 39-35-8, 86 points
15 – Edmonton Oilers 82GP, 25-44-13, 63 points

* projected division winner
PSOW – projected shootout wins

Drawing on James Mirtle’s past playoff push series of posts, listed above are the current Western Conference standings and Sharkspage’s projections for the 82-game finish. According to projections, Phoenix will leapfrog Anaheim for 5th place in the West and there will be a four team tie for the final pair of playoff spots. Based on number of wins, the Chicago Blackhawks (43 wins) and Minnesota Wild (42 wins) would advance, while the San Jose Sharks (41 wins) and Colorado Avalanche (41 wins) would miss the playoffs, but that does not take into account the new tiebreaking clause for 2010-11. “The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the shootout”. Chicago, San Jose and Colorado are all projected to finish with 5 OT shootout wins, Minnesota with 0. Three teams out of the playoff race will finish tied for 12th with 86 points.

Over the past few seasons, 90-95 points was the target for teams to make the playoffs. Last season was the first time a team qualified for the postseason with less than 91 points since the introduction of the shootout. The Montreal Canadiens and Philadelphia Flyers both qualified with 88 points, and both advanced to the Conference Finals in the East. In the five seasons since the lockout, Western Conference teams that qualified for the 8th playoff spot needed to earn an average of 93.6 points (05-06 Edmonton – 95 points, 06-07 Calgary – 96 points, 07-08 Nashville – 91 points, 08-09 Anaheim – 91 points, 09-10 Colorado – 95 points). Increased desperation could bump up the cutoff in the West, no more so than in the Pacific Division. A number of intra-divisional Pacific matchups will finish the season. For the San Jose Sharks, all five April contests will be against Pacific Division foes (3 home, 2 away).

Given the current parity in the standings and on the ice, April could be a make or break month for the 3-time defending Pacific Division champs. Any dip or slide in the standings could force San Jose Shark EVP/GM Doug Wilson to become more aggressive at the February 28th NHL trade deadline. If the club can maintain its 4-0-1 pre-ASG pace, a minor tweak or remaining with the status quo could be more plausible.

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